The number of young people working in IT is falling

Text Mark Taylor
Photo Per Lööv / Unsplash

Statistics Estonia’s recent labour market data indicates a significant decrease in the number of young people, aged 20-29, working in Estonia’s information and communication sector over the past year and a half. This trend is particularly notable in the field of computer programming, where young workers were once a driving force for growth.

For the past decade, Estonia’s information and communication sector has been a standout performer in the national labour market. It has offered the highest wages, demonstrated growth even during economic crises, faced the largest shortages of skilled labour, and had high growth ambitions, according to employers. However, recent data reveals a concerning shift.

Decline in Employment Relationships

As of June 2024, approximately 36,000 employees were registered in the information and communication sector, with over half (22,000) engaged in computer programming, consultancy, and related activities. Despite creating 7,700 new jobs in this sub-sector between 2019 and 2023, the past year has seen a reduction of 600 jobs. Other sub-sectors also experienced small declines.

Shift in Demographics

Kadri Rootalu, a data scientist at Statistics Estonia, highlighted significant demographic changes within the field of computer programming. “While in the past, the number of jobs in computer programming was growing because of younger workers, this growth has slowed down over the past year and the number of young employees in the 20-29 age group has decreased in this field,” Rootalu noted. 

In June 2022, there were 6,130 young programmers, but by June 2024, this number had dropped to 5,070. Conversely, the number of programmers aged 40 to 69 increased from 5,720 in 2022 to 6,880 in June 2024.

Decline in Young Professionals

The reduction is most evident among young professionals, such as software developers, application programmers, system analysts, and administrators. In June 2023, there were 3,920 young professionals in computer programming. By June 2024, this number had decreased to 3,370. The decline in other age groups was less pronounced, and the number of professionals aged 40-59 actually increased.

Possible Causes

Rootalu suggested that the decline in young workers may be partly due to demographic changes in Estonia. Between 2019 and 2024, the population of 20-29-year-olds fell from 153,000 to 136,000, while the 40-49 age group increased by over 10,000. “We can assume that young people who started in the field of computer programming in earlier years have simply got older,” Rootalu said. However, the question of why the number of young employees in programming activities has fallen specifically in the last two years, when the proportion of young people in the population in general has been in decline for quite some time, remains unanswered. “There is nothing that stands out about those who have left the world of computer programming other than the fact that they are young people. Around two-thirds of them are citizens of Estonia and half of them have a higher education degree,” Rootalu added.

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