Latvia’s population could fall to 1 million by 2100

Text Mark Taylor
Photo Ana Tablas / Unsplash

According to population projections published by Eurostat, the population of Latvia is forecast to fall by almost half by 2100, down from its current level of 1.9 million to around 1.1 million. This drastic fall will see its population become smaller than that of Estonia (predicted to fall from 1.3 million to 1.28 million).

Between 2022 and 2100, the population of the EU is predicted to fall by 6 per cent. In numeric terms, this is a fall of 27.3 million across the 27 countries of the European Union.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created a mass influx of refugees into the EU. In part, driving a continued increase in the EU population, that was estimated to be 451 million in January this year. However, the population is expected to peak at 453 million by 2026, thereafter slowly falling to 420 million by 2100.

Looking at the Baltic region more closely, Latvia’s population decline is set to be far more dramatic than the EU average. The country’s population, which currently sits at 1.9 million, is predicted to fall below 1.5 million by 2045, and continue to fall steeply to as low as 1.16 million by 2100.

Should these predictions prove to be correct, the population of Latvia will fall below that of Estonia by around 2060, and remain the least populous state in the Baltics throughout the rest of the second half of this century.

This is because, although Estonia’s population is also predicted to fall, its reduction will be far less steep. Down from its current level of 1.33 million to 1.28 million, a fall of just 4 per cent (below the 6 per cent EU average) by 2100.

Like Latvia, Lithuania is also predicted to experience dramatic depopulation by 2100, falling from its current level of 2.8 million to around 1.7 million. A figure below the current population of Latvia.

The population of the three Baltic states as a whole is predicted to fall from its approximately 6 million residents today, to as low as 4.1 million by 2100 – a fall of almost one-third.

Source LSM 

To learn more about this and similar topics
2100 Baltic Eurostat Latvia Lithuania Population Population Projections